Why Dems have a good chance at winning back the state senate in the 45th LD

In the 2016 election, every single precinct in the 41st, 45th, and 48th LDs preferred Hillary Clinton & Tim Kaine over Donald Trump & Michael Pence. (Source: database downloaded from: King County Elections)

[Correction: an earlier version of this article incorrectly reported that every precinct in the 5th LD voted for Hillary & Kaine. In fact, 138 out of 168 precincts went for Hillary & Kaine in the 5th LD.]

In the 45st LD, 48,147 people voted for Hillary & Kaine; 20,824 voted for Trump & Pence: a ratio of 2.3.   The largest precinct ratio (Hillary/Trump) was 6.1; the smallest ratio was 1.1.

Likewise, 43,509 voters (58%) in the 45th LD voted for Jay Inslee; 31,950 went for Bill Bryant.   142 out of 166 precincts in the 45th LD voted for Jay Inslee over Bill Bryant.

For Legislative District 45 Representative Position 1, Democrat Roger Goodman won 42,981 (62%) of 45th LD votes, over 26,491 for Republican Ramiro Valderrama. 160 out of 166 precincts in the 45th LD chose Goodman over Valderrama.

For Legislative District 45 Representative Position 2, Democrat Larry Springer ran unopposed.

These results give hope that the Dems can win the special senate election in the 45th LD, where Democrat Manka Dhingra is aiming to win back control of the state senate from the Republicans, who have promised to spend $5 million to retain the seat.   The election is necessary because the incumbent, Republican Andy Hill, succumbed to  lung cancer in late October, 2016.

In the 41st LD, 50,843 people (72%) voted for Hillary & Kaine; 19,575 voted for Trump & Pence: a ratio of 2.6 favoring the Democrat. The largest precinct ratio (Hillary/Trump) was 5.5; the smallest ratio was 1.3.

In the 48th LD, results were even more lopsided. 42,860 (73%) voters chose Hillary & Kaine; 15,727 chose Trump & Pence. Every precinct went for Hillary & Kaine.

Even in the 5th LD (further east), 41,955 voters (60%) chose Hillary & Kaine, while only 28,450 chose Trump & Pence.  138 out of 168 precincts voted for Hillary.

Below are the ratios of Hillary & Kaine votes to Trump & Pence votes in all LDs in King County. Only in the 31st LD, in south-eastern King County, did Trump & Pence beat Hillary & Kaine.

+------+--------------------+--------------------+----------+
| LEG  | Hillary & Kaine    | Trump & Pence      |   Ratio  |
+------+--------------------+--------------------+-----------
|    0 |                 30 |                  9 |   3.3333 |
|    1 |             656524 |             263428 |   2.4922 |
|    5 |            7048440 |            4779600 |   1.4747 |
|   11 |            5311893 |            1992330 |   2.6662 |
|   30 |            3853512 |            2385330 |   1.6155 |
|   31 |             454116 |             485992 |   0.9344 | 
|   32 |            3142264 |             703840 |   4.4645 |
|   33 |            4647924 |            2047461 |   2.2701 |
|   34 |           13073159 |            2448853 |   5.3385 |
|   36 |           19877948 |            2132560 |   9.3212 |
|   37 |           10382058 |             969006 |  10.7141 |
|   39 |                286 |                186 |   1.5376 |
|   41 |            9711013 |            3738825 |   2.5973 |
|   43 |           16702844 |            1122116 |  14.8851 |
|   45 |            7992402 |            3456784 |   2.3121 |
|   46 |           14989462 |            2272650 |   6.5956 |
|   47 |            4250544 |            2993088 |   1.4201 |
|   48 |            7457640 |            2736498 |   2.7252 |
+------+--------------------+--------------------+----------+

Furthermore, 41st LD voters ousted Republican Steve Litzow from the state senate, replacing him with Democrat Lisa Wellman. During the campaign, Litzow even sent out a mailing to constituents announcing his opposition to Trump.  The other state legislators from the 41st LD are Democrats too, and women:  Judy Clibborn in the senate, and Tana Senn in the house.

The 45th LD senate election will be interesting, not only because of its political importance and expense, but also because both Dhingra and her Republican opponent, Jinyoung Lee Englund, are of Asian descent and are female.  With substantial Asian populations on the eastside, it is unclear what effect, if any, their ethnicity will have on the election outcome.

“The election won’t necessarily change the balance of power in the state for the long run: The winner of the special election will only serve out what would have been the last year of Hill’s term, and will have to fight to keep the seat in 2018.” (The real fight for control of the state lies ahead )

Please don’t take these results as reason for complacency.   Dems and allies need to work hard to win back the seat.