A very positive weekend for Darcy Burner and for the Progressive Caucus

On Friday, June 1, the Washington State Progressive Caucus met at the Convention Center and had the largest turnout ever – with nearly 200 delegates attending our caucus. The room was packed and included 50 delegates who joined the Progressive Caucus for the first time. At the meeting, the Progressive Caucus endorsed Darcy Burner, the strongest supporter of Social Security and the strongest opponent of endless foreign wars of all of the candidates running in the new 1st Congressional District. Darcy has also publicly stated she will join the Congressional Progressive Caucus if she is elected. Darcy won the Washington State Progressive Caucus endorsement with 90% of the vote.

That same afternoon, a KING 5 poll of nearly 600 registered voters in the new 1st CD (in other words, a very accurate poll) was released confirming that Darcy has a large lead over the rest of the Democrats running in the 1st CD. The exact numbers were

Darcy Burner        19%
Laura Ruderman       6%
Suzan Del Bene       4%
Steve Hobbs          4%
Darshan Rauniyar     1%
Undecided           16%

Assuming the undecided vote splits evenly between the top four Democrats, this would indicate that Darcy will prevail with the August Primary showing the following:

Darcy Burner    24%
Laura Ruderman  10%
Suzan Del Bene   8%
Steve Hobbs      8%
Darshan Rauniyar 1%

This is almost exactly what I predicted months ago when I predicted that Darcy would get at least twice as many votes as her nearest Democratic competitor.

Also on Friday, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, a founder of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and national leader of the Peace Movement endorsed Darcy Burner. Darcy has also been endorsed by Senator Maralyn Chase, a Washington State Progressive leader, and many other progressive Democrats.

The next day was also a strong showing for Darcy. At a meeting of the 1st Congressional District Democratic Caucus (the elected delegates to the State Democratic Party Convention and the people most responsible for electing Democrats), Darcy again got the most votes.

Darcy Burner           39  Votes  42%
Laura Ruderman         29  Votes  30%
Suzan Del Bene         15  Votes  16%
Steve Hobbs             1  Vote    1%
Darshan Rauniyar        5  Votes   5%
No recommendation       6  Votes   6%
Total Votes             89 Votes 100%

Dividing the undecided vote evenly among all candidates results in the following:

Darcy Burner          41 Votes 43%
Laura Ruderman        30 Votes 32%
Suzan Del Bene        16 Votes 17%
Steve Hobbs            2 Votes 2%
Darshan Rauniyar       6 Votes 6%
Total Votes           89 Votes 100%

Since the new 1st CD is about equally divided between Democrats and Republicans, dividing the above numbers by 2 yields an estimated poll based on 89 Solid Democrats (which is the kind most likely to vote in Primaries):

Darcy Burner         21%
Laura Ruderman       16%
Suzan Del Bene        9%
Steve Hobbs           1%
Darshan Rauniyar      3%
Total Votes          50%

Finally, averaging these Democratic State Delegate results with the KING 5 poll results yields the following combined result:

Darcy Burner         22%
Laura Ruderman       13%
Suzan Del Bene        8%
Steve Hobbs           5%
Darshan Rauniyar      2%
Total Votes          50%

It is remarkable is how similar the results were between the Democratic Party vote and the KING 5 poll. The conclusion of both polls is that Darcy Burner has a huge lead over the rest of the Democrats.

The Primary is still more than 2 months away. But given the huge size of Darcy’s lead, it is unlikely that any of the other Democrats will overtake her between now and August when the votes are counted.

There is some controversy by a few in the Democratic Party because about a year ago, Darcy Burner claimed that Barack Obama was “not a Democrat” after Obama put Social Security on the bargaining table during the debt negotiation. Given that the majority of voters in the August Primary will be Senior Citizens who strongly agree with Darcy that Social Security should not be put on the bargaining table, I think Darcy’s objection to this very unpopular action by Obama will, if anything, get her even more votes among seniors.

It was also revealed that over HALF of those who voted for John Koster in the last election are senior citizens in favor of protecting Social Security. Given that John Koster is openly opposed to Social Security while Darcy strongly supports it, this is a ready-made campaign issue for Darcy which may help her defeat John Koster in the Fall election.

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