Donald Trump GOP Politics Republicons

Republican states have higher rates of teen births, gun deaths, suicides, poverty, crime, and divorce; and they die younger and are less educated

Using data from reliable public sources listed below, I plotted charts showing the relation between the percent of voters that voted for Donald Trump in 2020 in each state and various per capita rates:  gun deaths, poverty, teen births, suicide, crime, divorce, several sexually transmitted diseases, longevity, and education.

The results show that states that voted for Trump have (with one exception) higher rates for those indications of crime, social ill, and poor health.   Trump-voting states are particularly worse off for teen births, gun deaths, suicide, and divorce. They also have significantly lower rates of educational attainment and lower life expectancy.

Hint: In each scatter chart below, the X axis (horizontal) shows for each state the percent of voters who supported Donald Trump in 2020.  The Y axis (vertical) shows the crime, poverty, or other rate. Notice that for all but the final three charts, the scatter charts show a positive correlation: a line sloping up to the right; that indicates that the higher the support for Trump, the higher the rate of teen births, etc.

Three exceptions to the positive correlation rule are the final three charts, for syphilis, life expectancy (longevity) and education level. Trump supporters tend to have a slightly lower rate of syphilis (p = -0.1).  And in states that voted for Trump, people tend to die younger and be less educated, so the line slopes downward for those charts as well.

The Pearson correlations between Trump support and the measured value are:

Teen birth 0.7
Gun deaths 0.6
Suicides 0.6
Divorce 0.6
Poverty 0.4
Gonorrhea 0.3
Violent crime 0.3
Non-violent crime 0.2
Chlamydia 0.2
Crime (all types) 0.2
Syphilis -0.1
Life expectancy -0.6
Education level -0.7

A Pearson correlation of 1.0 would mean that the two values are perfectly linearly correlated. A correlation of 0.7 or -0.7 is strong.

Trump support versus Teen Births

Trump support versus Suicide rate

Trump support versus Gun Deaths rate

Trump support versus Divorce

Note: divorce data is unavailable for states CA, HI, IN, NM, and NM.

Trump support versus Poverty rate

The correlation between Trump support and crime is weaker:

Trump support versus Crime rate

I note that NM, CO, WA, and OR have high crime rates but tend Democratic.

It’s useful to show data separately for non-violent and violent crime.

Violent crime is low in NM, CO, WA, and OR:

Trump support versus violent crime

But non-violent crime (e.g., property crime) is high in NM, CO, WA, and OR:

Trump support versus non-violent crime

Note, too, that the absolute rate of violent crime is much lower than the rate of non-violent crime.

The correlation between Trump support and rates of sexually transmitted diseases is not strong but is still present:
Trump support versus Gonorrhea rate

Trump support versus Chlamydia rate

For syphilis, there’s a slight negative correlation (-0.1), meaning that Trump supporters are slightly less likely to get that diseases.

Trump support versus Syphillis rate

I notice that Wyoming and to a lesser extent West Virginia are outliers: on several measures they do well, despite their high rate of support for Donald Trump. But Wyoming has a very high suicide rate.

Life expectancy (longevity) is lower in states which voted for Trump, so the data points slope downwards to the right.

Trump support versus life expectancy

Likewise, people tend to be less educated in states that voted for Trump. This is one of the strongest (negative) correlations.

Most & Least Educated States in America (2022)


Cook Political Report’s 2020 National Popular Vote Tracker

World Population Review’s 2020 Crime Rates by State

CDC’s Firearm Mortality by State

CDC’s Teen Birth by State

CDC’s 2020 STD Surveillance Report

CDC’s Suicide Mortality by State

USDA’s Economic Research Service’s Poverty by State (2020)

CDC’s Divorce Rates by State: 2019 – 2020

CDC’s Life Expectancy at Birth by State

WalletHub’s Most & Least Educated States in America