Why women — especially older women — rule in Washington State

Out of the 4.6 million registered voters in Washington State, 2.4 million (51.9%) are female.

Out of the 3.4 million active registered voters (meaning they’ve voted since 2012), 2.4 million (52.8%) are female.

Women rule — or at least decide who rules — in Washington State.

Furthermore, older people vote at much higher numbers than younger voters.     The following graph shows the number of registered voters by age of birth.

Voter Registration in Washington State

There are drop-offs for elderly people born before 1950, for the newly eligible people born since 1990, and for the double dip around 1970 — presumably the generation between the baby boomers and their children.  But aside from these drop-offs, the number of registered voters is rather flat.  However, the number of active voters (who have voted since 2012) shows a marked preference for the older voters:

Voter Registration in Washington State, for active voters

Young people need to vote more!

(Note: I gathered these stats from the voter registration database that I downloaded from the Washington State Secretary of State’s office.)

If we consider elderly active voters, the bias towards women is more extreme.  There are 799 thousand active female voters who were born before 1960. There are 703 thousand active male voters born before 1960.   So 53.1% of active elderly voters are female.

Some other interesting stats: King, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties have over half the registered voters in Washington State.  Female voters outnumber male voters 711 thousand to 673 thousand in King County.

Here are the numbers of registered voters by county.

+------------+----------+----------------------+
| CountyCode |  # Regs  |     Percent of total |
+------------+----------+----------------------+
| KI         |  1386134 |              29.8783 |
| PI         |   534848 |              11.5287 |
| SN         |   494310 |              10.6549 |
| SP         |   332249 |               7.1617 |
| CR         |   301612 |               6.5013 |
| TH         |   192481 |               4.1490 |
| KP         |   180618 |               3.8932 |
| WM         |   149761 |               3.2281 |
| YA         |   121799 |               2.6254 |
| BE         |   111978 |               2.4137 |
| SK         |    78947 |               1.7017 |
| CZ         |    70074 |               1.5105 |
| IS         |    60167 |               1.2969 |
| CM         |    54836 |               1.1820 |
| LE         |    49506 |               1.0671 |
| GY         |    47050 |               1.0142 |
| CH         |    45999 |               0.9915 |
| GR         |    45724 |               0.9856 |
| MA         |    40770 |               0.8788 |
| FR         |    38318 |               0.8259 |
| WL         |    36834 |               0.7940 |
| ST         |    32640 |               0.7036 |
| KS         |    26991 |               0.5818 |
| JE         |    26713 |               0.5758 |
| WT         |    25873 |               0.5577 |
| OK         |    24325 |               0.5243 |
| DG         |    21702 |               0.4678 |
| AS         |    16504 |               0.3557 |
| KT         |    15786 |               0.3403 |
| PA         |    15230 |               0.3283 |
| SJ         |    13506 |               0.2911 |
| PE         |    10116 |               0.2181 |
| SM         |     8097 |               0.1745 |
| LI         |     7402 |               0.1596 |
| AD         |     7175 |               0.1547 |
| FE         |     5170 |               0.1114 |
| WK         |     3231 |               0.0696 |
| CU         |     3011 |               0.0649 |
| GA         |     1780 |               0.0384 |
+------------+----------+----------------------

Though King County has lots of registrations, its turnout is lower than many other counties. Here’s a table showing turnout by county (again, voters are those who have voted since 2012).

+------------+---------+------------+-----------------+
| CountyCode | Active  | Registered | Percent turnout |
+------------+---------+------------+-----------------+
| SJ         |   11667 |     13506  |     86.4%       |  San Juan County
| LI         |    6238 |      7402  |     84.3%       |  Lincoln County
| JE         |   22170 |     26713  |     83.0%       |  Jefferson County
| CU         |    2468 |      3011  |     82.0%       |
| GA         |    1445 |      1780  |     81.2%       |
| WK         |    2585 |      3231  |     80.0%       |
| CM         |   43310 |     54836  |     79.0%       |
| ST         |   25683 |     32640  |     78.7%       |
| FE         |    4064 |      5170  |     78.6%       |
| SK         |   61914 |     78947  |     78.4%       |
| IS         |   46750 |     60167  |     77.7%       |
| OK         |   18873 |     24325  |     77.6%       |
| PA         |   11811 |     15230  |     77.6%       |
| WM         |  115759 |    149761  |     77.3%       |
| KS         |   20795 |     26991  |     77.0%       |
| CH         |   35344 |     45999  |     76.8%       |
| MA         |   31242 |     40770  |     76.6%       |
| SM         |    6197 |      8097  |     76.5%       |
| BE         |   85388 |    111978  |     76.3%       |
| WL         |   28073 |     36834  |     76.2%       |
| PE         |    7678 |     10116  |     75.9%       |
| LE         |   37463 |     49506  |     75.7%       |
| KI         | 1046928 |   1386134  |     75.5%       |
| KP         |  136283 |    180618  |     75.5%       |
| KT         |   11876 |     15786  |     75.2%       |   King County
| SN         |  370888 |    494310  |     75.0%       |   Snohohomish County
| WT         |   19396 |     25873  |     75.0%       |
| SP         |  248881 |    332249  |     74.9%       |
| DG         |   16072 |     21702  |     74.6%       |
| AD         |    5229 |      7175  |     72.9%       |
| TH         |  140214 |    192481  |     72.8%       |
| PI         |  388218 |    534848  |     72.6%       |   Pierce County
| CR         |  216499 |    301612  |     71.8%       |
| CZ         |   49609 |     70074  |     70.8%       |
| GY         |   33155 |     47050  |     70.5%       |
| YA         |   85157 |    121799  |     69.9%       |
| GR         |   31583 |     45724  |     69.1%       |
| AS         |   11031 |     16504  |     66.8%       |
| FR         |   25400 |     38318  |     66.3%       |
+------------+---------+------------+-----------------+

The following image shows turnout by zipcode in Washington State.
Turnout by Zipcode in Washington State

Earlier this year, in How does voter turnout vary with income?, I showed the degree to which wealthy people vote more  than poorer people.  I reproduce the relevant graph below. (Click on it for a larger version.)

Voter turnout by median income

There is a trend in the graph: the richer zipcodes (on the right) tend to have higher turn out (towards the top). That’s why the graph tends towards the upper right. There are exceptions — zipcodes with lower income and higher turnouts.

You can also see to which voters tend to be older and female from the following chart from the Secretary of State’s office, showing voter turnout in the 2014 election:

Age     Gender  Number of Voters
18 - 24 years   Female  174801
18 - 24 years   Male    167837
18 - 24 years   UnKnown 376
18 - 24 years   Total   343014
25 - 34 years   Female  331861
25 - 34 years   Male    304675
25 - 34 years   UnKnown 410
25 - 34 years   Total   636946
35 - 44 years   Female  322444
35 - 44 years   Male    300368
35 - 44 years   UnKnown 369
35 - 44 years   Total   623181
45 - 54 years   Female  365392
45 - 54 years   Male    343584
45 - 54 years   UnKnown 345
45 - 54 years   Total   709321
55 - 64 years   Female  392350
55 - 64 years   Male    359749
55 - 64 years   UnKnown 372
55 - 64 years   Total   752471
65 and over     Female  461011
65 and over     Male    396921
65 and over     UnKnown 414
65 and over     Total   858346
Grand   Total   3923279

In short, older people, rich people, and females tend to be the people who vote most.

According to the Secretary of State’s Voting Participation Statistics, in the 2012 elections, 60.8% of the voting age population voted. In the midterm elections of 2014 only 39.5% of eligible people voted.

Letter to the editor in Bellevue Reporter, on attack ads and Litzow

On the day the primary election ballots arrived in my mailbox, I also received an attack ad, from a group opposed to 41st LD state Senate candidate Lisa Wellman. Wow, they’re starting early this year! In 2010 her opponent, Steve Litzow, won by about 200 votes because of last-minute attack ads sent out by an organization funded by the Koch Brothers; at least they waited til right before the general election. Unfortunately, attack ads tend to work, regardless of the accuracy of their content.

Here’s hoping that Washington State voters wise up and realize that the Republican policies serve the few, by burdening us with regressive taxes. For example, did you know that Republicans actually raised your taxes? The regressive gas tax just went up a nickel and will rise again next year [Oops. I got that wrong. It rose last year. My apologies.] Republicans are OK with regressive taxes, such as the gas tax and the sales tax. But they vehemently oppose closing tax loopholes that favor the rich, and they oppose taxing capital gains.

Response to Jonathan Rauch's "How American Politics Went Insane"

In a lengthy article in The Atlantic, How American Politics Went Insane, Jonathan Rauch diagnoses dysfunction in American politics as being caused by a breakdown of party structure and the rise of extremist outside groups such as the Tea Party who can’t be controlled. Rauch’s proposed solution to our political dysfunction is to bring back strong party machines that can enforce discipline and fight off extremists. Rauch wants to bring back pork-barrel spending, secret negotiations in smoke-filled rooms, and control by party bosses and committee chairs.

But what’s to prevent extremists from taking over party machinery? The main problem is extremism (on the right) fueled by donations from self-interested corporations and rich people.

This question was addressed by James Madison in Federalist Paper #10, where he worried both about extremists factions taking over the government and about majorities oppressing minorities. He thought that the large number of representatives, interests, and electors would make it difficult for factions to take over.  He thought that no single self-interested faction would be large enough to become a majority capable of oppressing others. He thought that the voters would tend to select worthy representatives. Apparently he was overly optimistic.

Madison explored majority rule v. minority rights in this essay. He countered that it was exactly the great number of factions and diversity that would avoid tyranny. Groups would be forced to negotiate and compromise among themselves, arriving at solutions that would respect the rights of minorities. Further, he argued that the large size of the country would actually make it more difficult for factions to gain control over others. “The influence of factious leaders may kindle a flame within their particular States, but will be unable to spread a general conflagration through the other States.”

Washington State caucus disasters

One of the Washington State Democratic Legislative District caucuses ran to 12:45 AM. It started at 12 noon.   Several other caucuses took six to eight hours.

On facebook the vast majority of people commenting want to do away with the caucus system and use a primary. For many people, the caucus experience was a nightmare. At mine, the police were ticketing and towing vehicles at one point.

Caucuses are an excellent way to discourage people from participating in the Democratic Party

Someone pointed out, though, that caucuses enable outside (nonorthodox) candidates like Sanders to win — at least in states with open caucses, like Washington. Open caucuses mean that anyone can declare themselves a Democrat and vote in the caucus.  This year it’s clear that thousands of Independents — many young people, in particular — caucused for Bernie Sanders.   In states which have closed caucuses or, like New York, which have a closed primary, it’s harder for outside candidates to win.

Also, with primaries, the less informed, more easily misled general public gets to vote, so it’s harder for a committed minority to take over.

On facebook Raechel Morera‎ wrote:

Did anyone else encounter issues with the state Democratic Party rule change about alternates moving to other precincts where delegates didn’t show up, as long as they pledged as an alternate for the same candidate?

We had 4 HRC supporters who pledged as Bernie alternates at their last caucus, move to other precincts still claiming to be Sanders alternates, then becoming Sanders delegates, and then change their final votes to Hillary. We all caught on because, we were running so behind, we decided to ask anyone changing their final vote to stand, instead of having to tally all the votes again, assuming no one was going to flip candidates at this point. These 4 people stood up and changed their votes, all from Bernie, to Hillary (which, come on, doesn’t happen). They had put on Hillary stickers and everything.

It was obvious this was something that was planned to try to throw the delegate count. Being there was only 4 of them, it didn’t make a difference, but it seemed obvious this change from the state party was in HRC’s favor and these people knew what they were doing.

Thought I should share. I was in the 44th District.

How does voter turnout vary with income?

Voter turnout versus median income by zipcode in Washington State
(Click for a larger version)

The graph above shows one point (a “+”) for 414 zip-codes in Washington State having greater than 1000 population in 2010. The X axis value for each point represents the median income; the Y axis value for each point represents the voter turnout (defined as the the number of residents who voted between 2012 and 2014 divided by the population in 2010). Median income and population data per zip-code were sourced here”. Voter data come from here. Points were omitted for zip-codes with population under 1000.

The graph should be regarded as approximate only, since the voting data came from a different source (the Secretary of State of Washington) than the population and income data (the University of Michigan), and since in data of this form there are always anomalies, errors, and special cases. For example, several military bases have high populations but low voter turnout; presumably, the residents vote in another state.

Another problem is that the population includes people under 18 years old, so in zipcodes with many children, for example, the turnout will appear lower. I plan to redo this analysis accounting for that problem.

Can anyone say why in Cle Elum more people voted than the population?

And why was turnout so high in Yacolt, Lopez Island, and Port Ludlow?

In general, wealthier zip-codes vote more.  Some extreme zip-codes are labeled.

But some zip-codes with moderate income have high turnout. What characteristics explain that and can we use that information to increase turnout?

See Graph showing the extent to which young people don’t vote for similar analysis.

Here’s the raw joined data:

+---------+--------+------------+----------+---------------------+
| zipcode | median | population | # voters | # voters/population |
+---------+--------+------------+----------+---------------------+
| 98001   |  73052 |      31911 |    13911 |              0.4359 |
| 98002   |  40586 |      31647 |    10113 |              0.3196 |
| 98003   |  52410 |      44151 |    14428 |              0.3268 |
| 98004   |  99669 |      27946 |    15075 |              0.5394 |
| 98005   |  72812 |      17714 |     8225 |              0.4643 |
| 98006   | 104825 |      36364 |    19926 |              0.5480 |
| 98007   |  69589 |      24889 |     7265 |              0.2919 |
| 98008   |  89013 |      24411 |    12124 |              0.4967 |
| 98010   |  87030 |       5025 |     2858 |              0.5688 |
| 98011   |  68584 |      29212 |    11658 |              0.3991 |
| 98012   |  87772 |      51136 |    26217 |              0.5127 |
| 98014   |  89478 |       6765 |     3923 |              0.5799 |
| 98019   |  99893 |      10725 |     6044 |              0.5635 |
| 98020   |  74324 |      18304 |    12807 |              0.6997 |
| 98021   |  85127 |      26722 |    13902 |              0.5202 |
| 98022   |  68314 |      20987 |    10981 |              0.5232 |
| 98023   |  66228 |      47510 |    19457 |              0.4095 |
| 98024   |  96642 |       5650 |     2927 |              0.5181 |
| 98026   |  75933 |      35921 |    19882 |              0.5535 |
| 98027   |  94297 |      26141 |    15057 |              0.5760 |
| 98028   |  86310 |      20419 |    11487 |              0.5626 |
| 98029   |  99662 |      24348 |    11918 |              0.4895 |
| 98030   |  56657 |      33769 |    10927 |              0.3236 |
| 98031   |  65442 |      36581 |    14943 |              0.4085 |
| 98032   |  51834 |      33853 |    10095 |              0.2982 |
| 98033   |  96609 |      34338 |    19508 |              0.5681 |
| 98034   |  78393 |      40407 |    23304 |              0.5767 |
| 98036   |  65884 |      36000 |    16218 |              0.4505 |
| 98037   |  60621 |      26889 |    11134 |              0.4141 |
| 98038   |  94082 |      31171 |    17706 |              0.5680 |
| 98039   | 174729 |       2971 |     1922 |              0.6469 |  Medina, WA 98839
| 98040   | 128906 |      22699 |    15236 |              0.6712 |  Mercer Island, WA 98040
| 98042   |  82732 |      43673 |    21790 |              0.4989 |
| 98043   |  54921 |      19943 |     9097 |              0.4562 |
| 98045   |  85740 |      13888 |     7861 |              0.5660 |
| 98047   |  50949 |       6339 |     2041 |              0.3220 |
| 98051   |  79974 |       3270 |     1926 |              0.5890 |
| 98052   |  93173 |      58442 |    24738 |              0.4233 |
| 98053   | 114287 |      18784 |    11067 |              0.5892 |
| 98055   |  63946 |      21904 |     8479 |              0.3871 |
| 98056   |  64105 |      32489 |    13477 |              0.4148 |
| 98057   |  46919 |      10613 |     4213 |              0.3970 |
| 98058   |  81492 |      41938 |    19608 |              0.4675 |
| 98059   |  84573 |      34463 |    17313 |              0.5024 |
| 98065   | 108108 |      12699 |     7035 |              0.5540 |
| 98070   |  79055 |      10624 |     7249 |              0.6823 |
| 98072   |  98841 |      22312 |    12839 |              0.5754 |
| 98074   | 134159 |      25748 |    13228 |              0.5137 |
| 98075   | 132144 |      20715 |    11294 |              0.5452 |
| 98077   | 120738 |      13585 |     8246 |              0.6070 |
| 98087   |  57839 |      29976 |    11106 |              0.3705 |
| 98092   |  77882 |      39816 |    18105 |              0.4547 |
| 98101   |  37606 |      10238 |     5936 |              0.5798 |
| 98102   |  57724 |      20756 |    13875 |              0.6685 |
| 98103   |  69942 |      45911 |    28948 |              0.6305 |
| 98104   |  23742 |      13095 |     4361 |              0.3330 |
| 98105   |  52145 |      43924 |    16732 |              0.3809 |
| 98106   |  60618 |      22873 |    10584 |              0.4627 |
| 98107   |  64804 |      21147 |    14317 |              0.6770 |
| 98108   |  55353 |      22374 |     8340 |              0.3728 |
| 98109   |  61978 |      20715 |    11850 |              0.5720 |
| 98110   |  92687 |      23025 |    15678 |              0.6809 |
| 98112   |  90529 |      21077 |    14630 |              0.6941 |
| 98115   |  82556 |      46206 |    29956 |              0.6483 |
| 98116   |  75728 |      22241 |    14950 |              0.6722 |
| 98117   |  76908 |      31365 |    21706 |              0.6920 |
| 98118   |  51093 |      42731 |    18906 |              0.4424 |
| 98119   |  67705 |      21039 |    12137 |              0.5769 |
| 98121   |  53600 |      12628 |     5922 |              0.4690 |
| 98122   |  57971 |      31454 |    17672 |              0.5618 |
| 98125   |  47910 |      30826 |    19970 |              0.6478 |
| 98126   |  64247 |      20698 |    11502 |              0.5557 |
| 98133   |  57182 |      44555 |    22866 |              0.5132 |
| 98136   |  77761 |      14770 |    10089 |              0.6831 |
| 98144   |  58263 |      26881 |    14213 |              0.5287 |
| 98146   |  53913 |      25922 |    10956 |              0.4227 |
| 98148   |  50183 |      10010 |     3558 |              0.3554 |
| 98155   |  71748 |      32778 |    18942 |              0.5779 |
| 98166   |  62107 |      20301 |    11387 |              0.5609 |
| 98168   |  47612 |      33734 |    10808 |              0.3204 |
| 98177   |  85481 |      19030 |    13306 |              0.6992 |
| 98178   |  55777 |      24092 |    10172 |              0.4222 |
| 98188   |  44313 |      23111 |     7916 |              0.3425 |
| 98198   |  59070 |      34584 |    13769 |              0.3981 |
| 98199   |  93940 |      19686 |    13160 |              0.6685 |
| 98201   |  39719 |      29582 |    11319 |              0.3826 |
| 98203   |  60383 |      34354 |    14707 |              0.4281 |
| 98204   |  46667 |      39380 |    10000 |              0.2539 |
| 98208   |  73266 |      51802 |    22743 |              0.4390 |
| 98221   |  51489 |      18248 |    12884 |              0.7060 |
| 98223   |  65194 |      40815 |    20045 |              0.4911 |
| 98225   |  37035 |      46172 |    21700 |              0.4700 |
| 98226   |  51756 |      41235 |    20933 |              0.5077 |
| 98229   |  55157 |      30321 |    16636 |              0.5487 |
| 98230   |  56395 |      15710 |     8246 |              0.5249 |
| 98232   |  76213 |       3920 |     2434 |              0.6209 |
| 98233   |  55440 |      14871 |     5970 |              0.4015 |
| 98236   |  64644 |       5635 |     3739 |              0.6635 |
| 98237   |  43647 |       4025 |     1704 |              0.4234 |
| 98239   |  60957 |       6646 |     4434 |              0.6672 |
| 98240   |  57557 |       3061 |     1595 |              0.5211 |
| 98241   |  43891 |       2129 |      836 |              0.3927 |
| 98244   |  42970 |       3001 |     1634 |              0.5445 |
| 98245   |  49232 |       3651 |     2450 |              0.6710 |
| 98247   |  58303 |       9072 |     3980 |              0.4387 |
| 98248   |  56492 |      22361 |    11227 |              0.5021 |
| 98249   |  58955 |       4561 |     3064 |              0.6718 |
| 98250   |  53080 |       7664 |     5085 |              0.6635 |
| 98251   |  58666 |       4567 |     2111 |              0.4622 |
| 98252   |  67096 |       8777 |     3949 |              0.4499 |
| 98253   |  56636 |       1837 |     1306 |              0.7109 |
| 98257   |  55632 |       4134 |     2539 |              0.6142 |
| 98258   |  74694 |      30524 |    20292 |              0.6648 |
| 98260   |  60239 |       5278 |     3801 |              0.7202 |
| 98261   |  52606 |       2383 |     1816 |              0.7621 |   Lopez Island, 98261
| 98264   |  54871 |      18893 |    11005 |              0.5825 |
| 98266   |  42970 |       3642 |     1205 |              0.3309 |
| 98270   |  68071 |      45899 |    19388 |              0.4224 |
| 98271   |  64937 |      27184 |    12262 |              0.4511 |
| 98272   |  72407 |      27942 |    11879 |              0.4251 |
| 98273   |  47849 |      28717 |    11009 |              0.3834 |
| 98274   |  60103 |      16613 |     8547 |              0.5145 |
| 98275   |  91715 |      20256 |    10910 |              0.5386 |
| 98277   |  50269 |      35219 |    15471 |              0.4393 |
| 98281   |  55388 |       1314 |      707 |              0.5381 |
| 98282   |  62239 |      15661 |     9960 |              0.6360 |
| 98284   |  56507 |      24331 |    10534 |              0.4329 |
| 98290   |  74068 |      32714 |    18269 |              0.5584 |
| 98292   |  70020 |      20987 |    11493 |              0.5476 |
| 98294   |  64505 |       6595 |     2885 |              0.4375 |
| 98295   |  53071 |       2409 |     1148 |              0.4765 |
| 98296   | 104505 |      27956 |    14236 |              0.5092 |
| 98303   |  45442 |       1037 |      722 |              0.6962 |
| 98310   |  38591 |      16286 |     8069 |              0.4955 |
| 98311   |  62106 |      25880 |    12166 |              0.4701 |
| 98312   |  53554 |      30203 |    12713 |              0.4209 |
| 98314   | 114375 |       3329 |       27 |              0.0081 |  Bremerton, WA 98314  (Navy Base Kitsap)
| 98315   |  39601 |       6054 |      420 |              0.0694 |  Silverdale, WA 98315 (Bangor Trindent Navy Base)
| 98320   |  33583 |       1250 |      838 |              0.6704 |
| 98321   |  70490 |      15152 |     7168 |              0.4731 |
| 98325   |  53580 |       1848 |     1128 |              0.6104 |
| 98326   |  50430 |       1412 |      205 |              0.1452 |
| 98327   |  81315 |       8267 |     3210 |              0.3883 |
| 98328   |  59019 |      10433 |     5062 |              0.4852 |
| 98329   |  70406 |      10545 |     5380 |              0.5102 |
| 98331   |  44773 |       6261 |     2089 |              0.3337 |
| 98332   |  84807 |      15855 |     9815 |              0.6190 |
| 98333   |  93517 |       3633 |     2598 |              0.7151 |
| 98335   |  79594 |      24925 |    15546 |              0.6237 |
| 98337   |  38537 |       6697 |     2289 |              0.3418 |
| 98338   |  69142 |      24098 |    12204 |              0.5064 |
| 98339   |  41673 |       3326 |     1732 |              0.5207 |
| 98340   |  63196 |       2537 |     1636 |              0.6449 |
| 98342   |  67000 |       1370 |      949 |              0.6927 |
| 98346   |  63787 |       9297 |     5218 |              0.5613 |
| 98349   |  54009 |       4614 |     2247 |              0.4870 |
| 98351   |  45442 |       1115 |      635 |              0.5695 |
| 98354   |  62253 |       6976 |     3279 |              0.4700 |
| 98356   |  47580 |       2149 |      910 |              0.4235 |
| 98357   |  32069 |       1414 |      389 |              0.2751 |
| 98359   |  62508 |       4887 |     2668 |              0.5459 |
| 98360   |  74154 |      12221 |     5702 |              0.4666 |
| 98361   |  38861 |       1158 |      604 |              0.5216 |
| 98362   |  44158 |      22230 |    11800 |              0.5308 |
| 98363   |  46987 |      13343 |     6565 |              0.4920 |
| 98365   |  61118 |       4528 |     3457 |              0.7635 |   Port Ludlow, WA 98365
| 98366   |  54727 |      34258 |    15961 |              0.4659 |
| 98367   |  67516 |      27693 |    14835 |              0.5357 |
| 98368   |  44355 |      14724 |    10290 |              0.6989 |
| 98370   |  69037 |      29528 |    16644 |              0.5637 |
| 98371   |  58921 |      20468 |    10943 |              0.5346 |
| 98372   |  65294 |      22475 |    11001 |              0.4895 |
| 98373   |  62962 |      22246 |     9574 |              0.4304 |
| 98374   |  73314 |      37360 |    17405 |              0.4659 |
| 98375   |  73130 |      26863 |    10722 |              0.3991 |
| 98377   |  39811 |       1922 |      968 |              0.5036 |
| 98380   |  75835 |       4173 |     2824 |              0.6767 |
| 98382   |  46020 |      26856 |    17156 |              0.6388 |
| 98383   |  66531 |      19727 |     9561 |              0.4847 |
| 98387   |  63338 |      43173 |    16395 |              0.3798 |
| 98388   |  67144 |       7508 |     3211 |              0.4277 |
| 98390   |  54886 |      10461 |     4672 |              0.4466 |
| 98391   |  80779 |      44309 |    21403 |              0.4830 |
| 98392   |  62802 |       2994 |     1492 |              0.4983 |
| 98394   |  66953 |       1107 |      639 |              0.5772 |
| 98402   |  24337 |       6356 |     1967 |              0.3095 |
| 98403   |  51479 |       7713 |     4163 |              0.5397 |
| 98404   |  43225 |      32086 |     9308 |              0.2901 |
| 98405   |  37834 |      22851 |     9004 |              0.3940 |
| 98406   |  58103 |      21610 |    11656 |              0.5394 |
| 98407   |  63502 |      19885 |    11953 |              0.6011 |
| 98408   |  48880 |      18830 |     7274 |              0.3863 |
| 98409   |  43856 |      22989 |     6970 |              0.3032 |
| 98416   |  56926 |       1014 |      339 |              0.3343 |
| 98418   |  45513 |      10069 |     3629 |              0.3604 |
| 98421   |  53139 |       1308 |       27 |              0.0206 |  Tacoma, WA 98421 (Puyallup Reservation)
| 98422   |  81649 |      20151 |    10007 |              0.4966 |
| 98424   |  55180 |      10140 |     3076 |              0.3034 |
| 98433   |  39955 |      14584 |      921 |              0.0632 |  Joint Base Lewish-McChord
| 98439   |  37549 |       4839 |      619 |              0.1279 |
| 98443   |  60045 |       5371 |     2988 |              0.5563 |
| 98444   |  40764 |      33956 |     8987 |              0.2647 |
| 98445   |  55677 |      29661 |    11368 |              0.3833 |
| 98446   |  62298 |      10173 |     4798 |              0.4716 |
| 98465   |  50319 |       6340 |     3392 |              0.5350 |
| 98466   |  55556 |      26944 |    13424 |              0.4982 |
| 98467   |  61968 |      14728 |     6943 |              0.4714 |
| 98498   |  60339 |      27546 |    12543 |              0.4553 |
| 98499   |  37929 |      29750 |     8824 |              0.2966 |
| 98501   |  67447 |      38133 |    21735 |              0.5700 |
| 98502   |  58029 |      30491 |    16741 |              0.5490 |
| 98503   |  58777 |      36611 |    16044 |              0.4382 |
| 98506   |  58257 |      18199 |    10209 |              0.5610 |
| 98512   |  64092 |      28130 |    15106 |              0.5370 |
| 98513   |  66040 |      31975 |    14989 |              0.4688 |
| 98516   |  72611 |      20166 |    10630 |              0.5271 |
| 98520   |  42028 |      23814 |     8040 |              0.3376 |
| 98524   |  53548 |       3232 |     2110 |              0.6528 |
| 98528   |  54373 |       9983 |     4660 |              0.4668 |
| 98531   |  39493 |      24121 |     9287 |              0.3850 |
| 98532   |  50480 |      23596 |    10945 |              0.4638 |
| 98537   |  41783 |       2129 |     1025 |              0.4814 |
| 98541   |  43450 |      10101 |     3982 |              0.3942 |
| 98546   |  56817 |       2909 |     1631 |              0.5607 |
| 98547   |  34116 |       1436 |      608 |              0.4234 |
| 98548   |  49273 |       2193 |     1303 |              0.5942 |
| 98550   |  35109 |      11382 |     4303 |              0.3781 |
| 98557   |  49117 |       3225 |     1376 |              0.4267 |
| 98563   |  47899 |       8001 |     4056 |              0.5069 |
| 98564   |  40787 |       2459 |     1166 |              0.4742 |
| 98568   |  54789 |       2519 |     1021 |              0.4053 |
| 98569   |  43245 |       5784 |     3152 |              0.5450 |
| 98570   |  44762 |       3889 |     2066 |              0.5312 |
| 98576   |  63864 |       4667 |     2334 |              0.5001 |
| 98577   |  38140 |       6338 |     2993 |              0.4722 |
| 98579   |  53449 |      12870 |     5759 |              0.4475 |
| 98580   |  58951 |      11099 |     5053 |              0.4553 |
| 98584   |  43427 |      36630 |    15553 |              0.4246 |
| 98586   |  33895 |       1944 |      911 |              0.4686 |
| 98588   |  54583 |       1829 |      923 |              0.5046 |
| 98589   |  56583 |       7320 |     3908 |              0.5339 |
| 98591   |  40754 |       3952 |     1905 |              0.4820 |
| 98592   |  57529 |       1764 |     1260 |              0.7143 |
| 98593   |  38133 |       1113 |      454 |              0.4079 |
| 98595   |  34670 |       2917 |     1140 |              0.3908 |
| 98596   |  48031 |       6524 |     3080 |              0.4721 |
| 98597   |  59939 |      21557 |     8758 |              0.4063 |
| 98603   |  57831 |       1017 |      480 |              0.4720 |
| 98604   |  66855 |      34232 |    16371 |              0.4782 |
| 98605   |  44409 |       1225 |      483 |              0.3943 |
| 98606   |  77158 |       9027 |     5090 |              0.5639 |
| 98607   |  78700 |      27899 |    14408 |              0.5164 |
| 98610   |  42624 |       2811 |     1280 |              0.4554 |
| 98611   |  49539 |       9133 |     4736 |              0.5186 |
| 98617   |  42799 |       1042 |      526 |              0.5048 |
| 98620   |  31122 |       7123 |     3796 |              0.5329 |
| 98624   |  41878 |       1532 |      645 |              0.4210 |
| 98625   |  60023 |       6133 |     3221 |              0.5252 |
| 98626   |  45288 |      24523 |     9845 |              0.4015 |
| 98629   |  67437 |       8364 |     4439 |              0.5307 |
| 98631   |  40563 |       3243 |     1743 |              0.5375 |
| 98632   |  46267 |      49168 |    20479 |              0.4165 |
| 98635   |  42799 |       1735 |      960 |              0.5533 |
| 98638   |  38593 |       1321 |      804 |              0.6086 |
| 98640   |  39564 |       4380 |     2418 |              0.5521 |
| 98642   |  78203 |      15696 |     9176 |              0.5846 |
| 98645   |  46984 |       1429 |      716 |              0.5010 |
| 98648   |  47607 |       3100 |     1559 |              0.5029 |
| 98660   |  40658 |      11858 |     4727 |              0.3986 |
| 98661   |  42245 |      41740 |    14058 |              0.3368 |
| 98662   |  60185 |      31644 |    12680 |              0.4007 |
| 98663   |  49287 |      14115 |     5966 |              0.4227 |
| 98664   |  49362 |      21771 |     9450 |              0.4341 |
| 98665   |  52410 |      24057 |    10358 |              0.4306 |
| 98671   |  67254 |      21220 |    10343 |              0.4874 |
| 98672   |  45865 |       6146 |     2944 |              0.4790 |
| 98674   |  58633 |      11948 |     5548 |              0.4643 |
| 98675   |  34540 |       3982 |     3047 |              0.7652 |   Yacolt, WA 98675
| 98682   |  61316 |      52893 |    19991 |              0.3780 |
| 98683   |  58304 |      30832 |    14305 |              0.4640 |
| 98684   |  61316 |      26968 |    11074 |              0.4106 |
| 98685   |  74427 |      26217 |    14473 |              0.5520 |
| 98686   |  70201 |      17385 |     9090 |              0.5229 |
| 98801   |  49867 |      40977 |    17339 |              0.4231 |
| 98802   |  52477 |      28719 |    11692 |              0.4071 |
| 98812   |  39741 |       4899 |     1205 |              0.2460 |
| 98813   |  35013 |       3176 |      423 |              0.1332 |
| 98815   |  52435 |       7233 |     3291 |              0.4550 |
| 98816   |  43841 |       6153 |     3058 |              0.4970 |
| 98823   |  43467 |      11055 |     4512 |              0.4081 |
| 98826   |  47329 |       6504 |     4009 |              0.6164 |
| 98828   |  63605 |       2146 |     1040 |              0.4846 |
| 98831   |  46492 |       3708 |     1430 |              0.3857 |
| 98837   |  47764 |      39722 |    13952 |              0.3512 |
| 98840   |  35551 |       4851 |     2325 |              0.4793 |
| 98841   |  39328 |       9197 |     3356 |              0.3649 |
| 98843   |  35370 |       1817 |      533 |              0.2933 |
| 98844   |  26366 |       4740 |     2014 |              0.4249 |
| 98846   |  40187 |       1173 |      459 |              0.3913 |
| 98847   |  60158 |       1920 |      831 |              0.4328 |
| 98848   |  41303 |      11518 |     3087 |              0.2680 |
| 98849   |  41980 |       1078 |      546 |              0.5065 |
| 98850   |  43971 |       1543 |      423 |              0.2741 |
| 98851   |  33997 |       4014 |     1579 |              0.3934 |
| 98855   |  34401 |       5863 |     2720 |              0.4639 |
| 98856   |  38280 |       2464 |     1438 |              0.5836 |
| 98857   |  39394 |       4082 |      874 |              0.2141 |
| 98858   |  50528 |       1521 |      824 |              0.5417 |
| 98862   |  49973 |       2218 |     1556 |              0.7015 |
| 98901   |  41213 |      30169 |     8010 |              0.2655 |
| 98902   |  36895 |      46322 |    12920 |              0.2789 |
| 98903   |  49434 |      14517 |     6071 |              0.4182 |
| 98908   |  61313 |      35240 |    18313 |              0.5197 |
| 98922   |  25029 |       2176 |     3136 |              1.4412 |  Cle Elum, WA 98922
| 98923   |  49458 |       1434 |      486 |              0.3389 |
| 98926   |  38431 |      30239 |    12589 |              0.4163 |
| 98930   |  39679 |      15252 |     3262 |              0.2139 |
| 98932   |  36669 |       5032 |     1039 |              0.2065 |
| 98933   |  46201 |       1267 |      333 |              0.2628 |
| 98934   |  55721 |       1117 |      371 |              0.3321 |
| 98935   |  41538 |       4190 |      814 |              0.1943 |
| 98936   |  57487 |       5872 |     2182 |              0.3716 |
| 98937   |  48236 |       4112 |     2086 |              0.5073 |
| 98938   |  37453 |       2177 |      539 |              0.2476 |
| 98942   |  56430 |      16973 |     7845 |              0.4622 |
| 98944   |  36027 |      22009 |     4504 |              0.2046 |
| 98947   |  49516 |       2902 |      955 |              0.3291 |
| 98948   |  32220 |      13225 |     2791 |              0.2110 |
| 98951   |  37426 |      13739 |     2972 |              0.2163 |
| 98952   |  52282 |       2330 |      492 |              0.2112 |
| 98953   |  51942 |       6681 |     2525 |              0.3779 |
| 99001   |  37049 |       6151 |     1221 |              0.1985 |
| 99003   |  59601 |       4848 |     2961 |              0.6108 |
| 99004   |  44133 |      18376 |     7640 |              0.4158 |
| 99005   |  76046 |       8574 |     5271 |              0.6148 |
| 99006   |  48552 |      11946 |     6351 |              0.5316 |
| 99009   |  49249 |       3947 |     1941 |              0.4918 |
| 99011   |  41563 |       2776 |      401 |              0.1445 |
| 99012   |  46414 |       1064 |      473 |              0.4445 |
| 99013   |  51586 |       1785 |      385 |              0.2157 |
| 99016   |  57310 |      12480 |     6875 |              0.5509 |
| 99019   |  80650 |       9502 |     5487 |              0.5775 |
| 99021   |  70764 |       9174 |     5222 |              0.5692 |
| 99022   |  61907 |       8820 |     4209 |              0.4772 |
| 99025   |  60963 |       5232 |     2780 |              0.5313 |
| 99026   |  71412 |       9042 |     5336 |              0.5901 |
| 99027   |  56009 |       6101 |     3323 |              0.5447 |
| 99029   |  57763 |       1289 |      775 |              0.6012 |
| 99030   |  56006 |       1032 |      566 |              0.5484 |
| 99031   |  50313 |       1137 |      735 |              0.6464 |
| 99036   |  81912 |       1448 |      950 |              0.6561 |
| 99037   |  59311 |      12973 |     7115 |              0.5484 |
| 99101   |  40745 |       1453 |      785 |              0.5403 |
| 99109   |  32852 |       5109 |     2807 |              0.5494 |
| 99110   |  45251 |       1667 |      782 |              0.4691 |
| 99111   |  50425 |       4047 |     2193 |              0.5419 |
| 99114   |  41026 |      12018 |     6620 |              0.5508 |
| 99115   |  39145 |       1143 |      624 |              0.5459 |
| 99116   |  47090 |       1439 |      578 |              0.4017 |
| 99122   |  48326 |       3773 |     2089 |              0.5537 |
| 99123   |  37292 |       1058 |      538 |              0.5085 |
| 99133   |  37783 |       1493 |      632 |              0.4233 |
| 99138   |  34239 |       1209 |      388 |              0.3209 |
| 99141   |  42733 |       5240 |     2855 |              0.5448 |
| 99148   |  42982 |       2106 |     1266 |              0.6011 |
| 99155   |  48657 |       1350 |      284 |              0.2104 |
| 99156   |  33963 |       8114 |     4132 |              0.5092 |
| 99159   |  45176 |       1375 |      759 |              0.5520 |
| 99161   |  47614 |       1400 |      844 |              0.6029 |
| 99163   |  33585 |      31404 |     8379 |              0.2668 |
| 99166   |  34042 |       3222 |     1815 |              0.5633 |
| 99169   |  42260 |       2459 |     1282 |              0.5214 |
| 99170   |  41424 |       1072 |      614 |              0.5728 |
| 99173   |  38408 |       1532 |      762 |              0.4974 |
| 99181   |  37667 |       1901 |      959 |              0.5045 |
| 99185   |  41102 |       1295 |      778 |              0.6008 |
| 99201   |  23026 |      13342 |     4658 |              0.3491 |
| 99202   |  32373 |      21580 |     6221 |              0.2883 |
| 99203   |  63513 |      20192 |    12650 |              0.6265 |
| 99204   |  29511 |       6681 |     2654 |              0.3972 |
| 99205   |  43761 |      42137 |    19304 |              0.4581 |
| 99206   |  52962 |      34802 |    16515 |              0.4745 |
| 99207   |  31829 |      30854 |     9705 |              0.3145 |
| 99208   |  58998 |      49193 |    25865 |              0.5258 |
| 99212   |  47842 |      19197 |     9177 |              0.4780 |
| 99216   |  45625 |      24362 |    10213 |              0.4192 |
| 99217   |  45696 |      17423 |     7550 |              0.4333 |
| 99218   |  57574 |      15531 |     6656 |              0.4286 |
| 99223   |  62106 |      29273 |    16624 |              0.5679 |
| 99224   |  57618 |      18289 |     9762 |              0.5338 |
| 99301   |  48363 |      68191 |    20239 |              0.2968 |
| 99320   |  58836 |       9201 |     4089 |              0.4444 |
| 99323   |  54821 |       3684 |     1636 |              0.4441 |
| 99324   |  39857 |       9202 |     3812 |              0.4143 |
| 99326   |  42256 |       4956 |      982 |              0.1981 |
| 99328   |  43611 |       3733 |     2094 |              0.5609 |
| 99336   |  43329 |      48753 |    15448 |              0.3169 |
| 99337   |  65176 |      29845 |    13753 |              0.4608 |
| 99338   |  89378 |      11555 |     7479 |              0.6473 |
| 99343   |  46068 |       3040 |      747 |              0.2457 |
| 99344   |  40239 |      16817 |     3485 |              0.2072 |
| 99348   |  54833 |       1364 |      344 |              0.2522 |
| 99349   |  31250 |       8483 |      940 |              0.1108 |
| 99350   |  47707 |      12979 |     4618 |              0.3558 |
| 99352   |  78225 |      26975 |    15367 |              0.5697 |
| 99353   |  74947 |      13306 |     7822 |              0.5879 |
| 99354   |  63383 |      21343 |    10851 |              0.5084 |
| 99357   |  33540 |       4323 |      753 |              0.1742 |
| 99360   |  58366 |       1350 |      695 |              0.5148 |
| 99361   |  57663 |       1902 |     1062 |              0.5584 |
| 99362   |  85482 |      35927 |    17958 |              0.4998 |
| 99402   |  57091 |       1875 |     1030 |              0.5493 |
| 99403   |  42707 |      19475 |     9395 |              0.4824 |
+---------+--------+------------+----------+---------------------+
414 rows in set (1 min 2.59 sec)

Graph showing the extent to which young people don't vote

The graph below shows the number of people in Washington State who voted, graphed by year of birth. As you can see, most of the voters are about age 60.  There are not many voters of age 18 through 38.

Washington voters by age (2012-2014 voters)

Overall, 3,396,040 Washingtonians voted from 2012 through 2014. Of these voters, 1,932,662 of them were born during the twenty year period ending in 1966 (these people were between 48 and 68 years old in 2014). Only 872,286 of the voters were born between 1976 and 1996 (people between the ages of 18 and 38). Only 460,986 of the voters were between 18 and 30.  For every 1000 voters between 48 and 68, there were 635 voters between age 18 and 38.

Restricted to King County, 392,001 voters were between 48 and 68;  303,176 voters were between 18 and 38.  For every 1000 King County voters between 48 and 68, there were 773 voters between 18 and 38.  So, the turnout in King County for younger people is somewhat better.

It’s true that there were many people born in the 1950s (the baby boomers). Does this account for the high ration in the number of elderly voters compared to younger voters? Apparently not. The chart below (from the U.S. Census’ bureau’s article Age and Sex Composition: 2010) shows the population of the United States by age group for the 2010 census. As you can see, for both males and females, there were peaks in the number of people at age 50 (the baby boomers) and at age 20 (the children of the baby boomers).       There are more women of age about 50 than of age about 20; there are slightly more men of age about 20 than men of age 50.  But the population of men and women drop off rapidly after age 50 or so.

Population by age and gender (U.S. Census Bureau)

Note: to calculate the voter numbers, I downloaded the Washington State voter registration database (about 500 MB in size) from the Washington State Secretary of State; then I loaded the data into a database and ran SQL queries. See https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/vrdb/VRDBFaq.aspx for an FAQ about the database.

 

Voting Rights Act would level election field

One hundred and fifty years ago today, Robert E. Lee surrendered his troops to Gen. Ulysses S. Grant, bringing to an end the Civil War. What had begun as a sectional war by which the South sought to preserve and expand slavery into the western territories, ended with the collapse of the South and the liberation of 4 million slaves.WA-voting-rights-act-front

The end of the war and the end of slavery left former slaves voteless, and powerless … but free. With Reconstruction, blacks did gain the vote and elected many of their own to offices in the South. This was only possible with federal intervention and occupation of the Southern states. As soon as the federal government withdrew from the South, the white establishment re-asserted political and economic power. Anti-black terrorism in the guise of the Ku Klux Klan spread across the South, blacks were barred from voting by laws passed by white-dominated legislatures, poll taxes, intimidation and fear. Jim Crow was embedded in the politics and economy of the South for almost 100 years.

It took the Civil Rights movement, occurring when many of us or our parents were kids or young adults, to upend the segregation, intimidation and voter restrictions of the South. The progress of that movement was only possible with federal intervention and federal oversight of Southern election practices and rules and customs. Political changes brought new educational and economic opportunity to African Americans, as well. This is our history within our lifetimes.

We tend to think that is all water under the bridge. But think of the Supreme Court’s current ruling which prevents the Department of Justice from oversight of election laws and the subsequent voter ID laws put in place in North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and Wisconsin, among other states.

This virus of prejudice is not limited to the South. We see it in our own state, with arrests for “driving while black,” with disproportionate sentencing and incarceration of young men of color, with the accelerating income gaps among the wealthy, the upper class, and the rest of society, with the public disinvestment in the higher education institutions that have provided pathways of progress for millions of poor and working-class young people in the past. We also see inequity based on race in election law and election outcomes in our state.

Consider Yakima, a city in which 2 out of every 5 residents is Latino, and yet in which no Latinos there have ever been elected to the city council or the school board or the Legislature. Because of its at-large elections, the city locks out minority candidates who would get elected if voting was by district. Now the U.S. Department of Justice has ordered Yakima to re-structure its election districts to make possible the fair representation of Latino voters.

Yakima’s practice of having district primary elections to select general election candidates who then run at-large is common throughout the state. And it tends to make winners out of mainstream (and white) candidates and leave everyone else on the margin. That points to the need for a statewide voting rights act that will prevent this sort of sidelining of people when their ethnicity and where they live fold together. State Rep. Luis Moscoso, D- Mountlake Terrace, developed House Bill 1745, the Washington Voting Rights Act, to give citizens a legal cause of action to obtain the right to voting and representation, if current election districts block fair representation. The legislation would enable local authorities to redraw election district lines to enable fair elections and not be in violation of the federal Voting Rights Law.

Representative Moscoso’s bill is a straightforward law, remedying the denial of representation and increasing the utility of the voting franchise for those of our society who are the least powerful. Elections are not supposed to be mere window dressing to make us look like a democracy. With free and fair voting, they are the essence of democracy. Voting is the fundamental expression of our democracy when the outcomes are not predetermined by race, privilege or practice. That’s why we need the Voting Rights Act.

Originally published at the Everett Herald

Koch-powered lawmakers

Many Washington State legislators were elected courtesy of the Koch Brothers. In particular, Andy Hill and Steve Litzow squeaked by in 2010 via attack ads funded by the Koch brothers’ Americans for Prosperity.

The State Republican Party was later fined for violating election reporting requirements in that election.See
State Republicans fined for violating reporting requirements in 2010 elections.

Democracy for Sale, owned by Koch brothers